Since the US and NATO troops' withdrawal in 2014 is certain, are the Afghan security forces ready to take the security responsibility of Afghanistan in post 2014? Well, according to their Western trainers and mentors they should be. However, Afghan people are not that sure. The continued attacks by the Taliban inside the country sometime resulting in heavy civilian casualties, the increasing presence of rogue elements in the forces, widespread corruption and nepotism in the ranks of Afghan security forces do not paint good picture of them.
For the successful US and NATO withdrawal, the preparedness and strength of the Afghan security forces are crucial. Because security vacuum after the withdrawal must be fill by domestic forces. So the role of Afghan security forces in the aftermath of 2014 is paramount. The prospect of peace has been slim from the moment Afghan President Karzai announced the pursuit of reconciliation with the Taliban. Each peace effort by Karzai and his team has met failure; whether it is presidential amnesty of Taliban or getting the names its members removed from the UN blacklist. But Taliban has not been impressed.
To make matters worse, a lot of parties and regional players mainly neighboring countries are involved in Afghanistan's conflict. Pakistan, Afghanistan's western neighbor, fears India might use the country as a hub against it by interfering in Baluchistan. India on its part, believes that the revival of extremist elements like Taliban by Pakistan means infiltration these groups into Jammu and Kashmir. Iran, eastern neighbor of Afghanistan wants the US to get bogged down in the country so that finally its resources is drained out. And finally there is an insurgent group of Taliban, supported by Haqqani Network, which is determined to fight till the end to get rid of foreign forces. This group is the main player with its backers, particularly Pakistan. This group, it seems, is unwilling to talk and engage with the US and its allies because it considers them occupiers.
Pakistan is Facilitator of Peace
Recent reports in Long War Journal, American news website suggest of a rift between Taliban ranks regarding peace talks with the US and Afghan Central government. Some so called 'moderate Taliban' led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, second in command in Taliban ranks, are in favor of peace and reconciliation. According to BBC report, Baradar had even secret contacts with former UN envoy to Afghanistan Kai Eide on peace. On the other hand, the so called 'bad Taliban' are stick to their guns setting the precondition that the foreign forces should leave Afghanistan first then talks could begin.
Afghan analysts like MP and member of Security Commission of Afghan Parliament Muhammad Naeem Lali Hameedzai, believe that the Taliban are actually controlled by Pakistani intelligence Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), which means that Taliban cannot decide on their own to initiate peace talks with the US and Afghan government. In a report in Long Wall Journal, in April he said that the Barg-i-Matal and Kamdesh districts of Nuristan province were influenced by Taliban militants and had the financial and military support of ISI. But Pakistan is denying such claim and maintains that a prosperous and secure Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan and it is the facilitator of peace. Pakistan's Ambassador to Afghanistan Muhammad Sadiq said things had changed in recent years over "our role despite certain misperceptions" in interview in July with The Express Tribune, Pakistani daily. He told The Express Tribune that Islamabad was willing to bury the past and is looking forward to working with all Afghan groups. "The very idea of shifting our embassy in an area populated by Uzbeks and Tajiks is to send out a clear message that we have no favorites in Afghanistan," he claimed.
The role of Pakistan has even been acknowledged by Afghan opposition groups. Talking to a Pakistan newspaper, The Express Tribune, in July former vice president and now an opposition figure Ahmed Zia Massoud said efforts to reach out to the Taliban would remain futile unless Pakistan is part of the process. "The Americans can't do it, it is only Pakistan which can persuade the Taliban and the Haqqanis to come to the negotiating table," he said. He heads the main opposition alliance called the Afghan National Front (ANF). So, Pakistan holds the key to any kind of peace settlement in war-torn country.
'Strategic Depth'
Pakistan is looking for 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan and any negotiation must have its backing. That is the reason that Taliban is used as a proxy and bargaining chip to have a weak and pro-Pakistan government in Kabul. In other words, a government that should that should not discuss the 'Durand Line' issue and be hostile towards India. This means controlling of the events in Afghanistan by Pakistan.
The fact that the Afghan war has become lengthy and expensive and public support for the war in the US and West is slipping, have added more confusion and uncertainty about the campaign. On the other hand, the Taliban is gaining ground everyday and launching regular attacks on US and Afghan forces.
The rise in civilian casualty which is due to lack of coordination between ill-equipped and under-trained Afghan forces and NATO on one hand, and the rampant corruption in the Afghan security forces on the other, has created considerable doubt about among Afghans about the effectiveness of US, NATO and Afghan forces. The very recent green-on-blue attacks on US and NATO soldiers signal that a bloody summer is awaiting international forces. Those who are hoping for peace in Afghanistan must engage Pakistan, because peace looks quite elusive considering the ground realities in this war-ravaged country.
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