Quinnipiac: Only 8% of Voters Think Polls Biased Toward Obama!

Contrary to popular opinion, which is being grossly distorted by the misreporting of left-leaning pollsters, Mitt Romney is not floundering in the race against President Obama.

Every time you read a story about how Romney must "reverse course" after a "disastrous month" of "Obama momentum," realize that this narrative was entirely created by biased pollsters and a complicit media seeking to sway election turnout.

Left-leaning pollsters are actively trying to discourage conservative voters and donors, put the Republican ticket on the defensive, and suppress GOP turnout. What's the proof?

Modern-day pollsters weight their raw sample results to match the electorate by expected turnout for key demographic groups. Almost every poll showing Obama ahead of Romney in swing states by double digits uses a weighting model that predicts Democratic turnout equal to or greater than it was in 2008. Specifically, these polls overweight demographic groups that flocked out en masse for Obama in 2008 and underweight anti-Obama groups.

Rather than assuming that unemployed college students and African Americans are more excited about voting for Obama this year than in 2008, reliable polling agencies such as Rasmussen, Purple Strategies, Gallup, and AP are using a weighting model that predicts Democratic voter turnout closer to what it was in 2004, or to a combination of 2004 and 2008. These firms have consistently found the race to be a toss-up, or for Obama to have only a slight lead.

The issue of weighting is not a statistical lacuna, a minor methodological difference that leads to slight differences among polls without affecting the overall result. In close cases, weighting is everything. It determines the predicted results.

Imagine a state with 5.1 million registered Democrats and 4.9 million Republicans. If both parties saw 75% turnout in 2012, the Democratic candidate would beat the Republican 51% to 49%.

Now suppose that Democrats saw 80% turnout and Republicans only 70%, comparable to 2008. In this case the Democrat would win 54% to 46%. But if Democrats saw 70% turnout and Republicans saw 80%, closer to what happened in 2004, the Republican would win 52% to 48%.

Assuming only slight differences in numbers of registered voters across parties, as in most swing states, turnout decides results. And most pollsters are relying on an outdated turnout model that enormously benefits Democrats, despite the fact that Democratic voter enthusiasm is down and Republican enthusiasm is up.

To get a flavor of how off-the-mark most polling firms' numbers are, consider the regularly updated Real Clear Politics average of poll averages. As of September 30, it predicts Obama beating Romney by a greater margin than he did McCain in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, three key swing states; and by similar margins in other swing states. Factor out the more reliable, unbiased polls, and Obama is outpacing Romney to such a degree as to make the 2008 election look like a nail-biter. In North Carolina, the average of averages predicts that Obama's margin of victory over Romney will be almost four times greater than his win over McCain.

Taking an average of several polls doesn't solve the problem, because most polls are making the same mistake. This isn't a case of some polls being a little biased one way, some another way, so let's take the average and call it even. It's a case of almost all polls being hugely biased in the same direction and for the same reason.

Defenders of the insanely optimistic pro-Obama polls claim that even right-leaning pollsters such as Rasmussen and Fox show slight Obama leads. Fine-they show slight Obama leads, not double-digit leads. But pollsters with an agenda know that a lead of a point or two six weeks before an election is not enough to dispirit and demoralize half the population.

As former New York Times columnist Bob Herbert noted, "There's a disconnect between what the polls are showing and... what the feel is... among the electorate. The polls are showing within the margin of error or close races. But there is this feeling that Romney is losing it... If this impression of Romney gets set in stone, that's very difficult to overcome, debates or no debates."

If we're lucky, left-leaning pollsters' efforts will be overcome by Romney and Ryan performing well in the upcoming debates, September and October jobs reports proving the economy still disastrous, Romney parlaying his monetary advantage over Obama, states implementing new voter fraud laws, and undecided voters breaking against the incumbent as they have historically done.

If pollsters successfully influence voter turnout by suppressing Republican enthusiasm and push the election to Obama, they will lose their credibility permanently.

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Political Change? Think Bigger

Two primary sentiments are in play this election season: 1) entrenched interests promoting the status quo of easy money (printing and borrowing) and resource redistribution; and 2) a troubled recognition that the easy money and redistribution course is a direct road to disaster. People in the former group don't want substantive change; they've got too much to lose. They find solace with the "steady as she goes, keep the something for nothing train rolling" choices democrats and republicans offer. This election seeks only to determine which special interests are to benefit most. The men and women in the latter group however, realize a major sea change is required to right the course of a once proud and prosperous nation, and real change is nowhere in sight.

America's situation is nothing short of a travesty and a tragedy. Americans are so enamored with a modicum of personal economic security (read entitlements) and so easily persuaded by groundless but attractive sounding promises they willingly cede their personal power to a host of would-be benefactors and rulers: professional politicians and financial and industrial elite. Circumstances have become so unhinged a significant political change is needed to alter our course. We are headed in the wrong direction. It's time to think bigger. It's time to reform the system.

The real problem, which leaders of neither political party will admit to because it serves the parties' interests, is we have concentrated wealth and power in the hands of a few. The system, developed painstakingly over generations, automatically draws resources from the productive core and funnels them to the connected rich to fund lavish lifestyles and the easily manipulated masses to ensure votes. No amount of economic stimulus, no amount of money printing, or ever more gargantuan fiscally irresponsible spending can overcome these two drains on creative, productive enterprise. The special interests have a death grip on the economy. Releasing this hold is the only option to give Americans a fighting chance at prosperity.

This corrupt system has generated a cultural malaise which must be peeled back for real progress to ensue. Power must return to the people - this means freedoms and responsibilities. We must shatter the resource transfer philosophy (unearned shift of wealth to the wealthy and unsecured entitlements to the masses) which is financially and morally bankrupting this nation.

This reform can and must be done by means of three measures: first depose the career politicians and eliminate the burgeoning political class (dismantle gerrymandering and establish term limits); second establish a sound currency and a responsible financial system (disassemble too big to fail financial institutions and end Wall Street's financial shenanigans); and finally get the federal government out the benefits and entitlements businesses (healthcare, education, and welfare).

Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. As much as we would like to believe this isn't true - that every day is a holiday and every meal a feast - it just isn't so. Politicians simply cannot handle power. So the less power the people give them, the better.

If you are one of the people who realize the something for nothing philosophy cannot endure, think bigger. Advocate for systemic reform. A major overhaul is the only way to give our children any chance at a healthy, thriving, and productive future. If you want political change, don't buy into the baseless and shallow promises the current slate of political candidates endorse. Think bigger.

Scott F. Paradis, author of "Success 101 How Life Works - Know the Rules, Play to Win" and "Warriors, Diplomats, Heroes, Why America's Army Succeeds - Lessons for Business and Life" focuses on the fundamental principles of leadership and success; http://success101workshop.com/

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Obama: Why Many Think He Deserves a Second Term

As of today if one were to evaluate the performance of Barack Obama as President of the United States of America, one might find it difficult to give it an exact grade. Not difficult to imagine given that no process seems to be in completion as of now, whether you are talking about the economy, the job situation, the war on terror or Afghanistan or the healthcare. So, why is it so difficult to have a binary assessment of President Barack Obama's tenure so difficult? Let us try and figure it out step wise.

The Inheritance

In recent history, no American President has acquired such a difficult legacy from a previous administration as Barack Obama did. And I am not blaming the bush administration for all the problems. The problems were acquired or to state otherwise were 'accumulating' over a period of time and waiting to happen. Just a summary of them would make any President squirm. The United States of America still fighting a devastating war on terror, economic wastage of decades finally coming to roost, simultaneous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, eruption of racial and ethicist divisions in the homeland and much more.

The hope

On the top of it, the ascendency of Brack Obama as President seemed like a panacea for all evils that besieged America. No doubt, his 2008 election campaign of, "Yes We Can" and the subsequent environment of 'change' and 'hope' enveloping America contributed even further to extraordinary expectations. But as he realized (or perhaps even knew) that mere slogans or expectations do not change things on the ground. Even before he could settle in the majestic confines of the White house, he knew he had his hands full. The Wall Street and the global markets were tumbling. Savings of millions of American households were dwindling; jobs were disappearing, war casualties increasing and the big American Hope crumbling. He knew more than anyone else that he would have to forget his own agenda of healthcare, economic and administrative reform that he promised America as a candidate for now and deal with issues at hand first.

And deal he did: The Tenure-

To Their credit Barack Obama and his team kept their sanity in these mad times. Knowing fully well that the problems besieging America would not solve on their own, he and his team set off to the task. The first task was to end the immediate economic woes. Not the economy on the whole, but parts of it. His stern message and legislations for the Wall Street were the first. The revival of American automotive industry came next, followed by tax cuts and investment initiatives, including a major infrastructure revival programme. To some relief, some of these initiatives started bearing fruit early. The automotive industry revived, the mortgage mayhem stopped and the Wall Street stabilized.

Next on the agenda was the ongoing conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan. True to his word, Barack Obama ensured that governance in Iraq was safely handed to the people of Iraq and troops were finally back home. Another feather in his cap remains the destruction of Al Qaeda, including the killing of its top leadership - Bin Laden included. A well thought plan was laid for the war on terror. Far from the "You are with us or them" rhetoric of the previous administration, Obama focused on a more inclusive and accommodative foreign policy in which countries across the world were involved in the decision making process on this front. From his path breaking speech in Cairo in 2009 to American support for democracy in the 'Arab Spring', the world has seen America regaining a lot of goodwill, which was seen to be lost in the Bush-Cheney era.

Another milestone has been the passing of the Patient protection and Affordable Health Care Pact (PPACA) also referred to as Obamacare. A major personal initiative of the President, this act vastly divided the political atmosphere in Washington for a while, but is gradually gaining acceptance, aided by the United States Supreme Court ruling terming it fair and constitutional. It is pertinent to mention here that this is one of the most significant changes to American Health Care system since the introduction of Medicare in 1965.

Another Four Years? Why?

With all the good work mentioned above, it would seem even remotely unfair to ask why, instead of why not, for another four years for Obama to be the President of the United States of America. And the answer to that is not simple. The problem is, though the balls have set rolling and problems are getting fixed, the work isn't completed yet. What is even more worrisome is that many American's don't understand the work in progress. For they will only be satisfied, not only when the problems are fully fixed, but also evidently seem to be fixed. And any political commentator worth his salt can tell you that's never possible. The task of solving a problem is one just one aspect, convincing others that you are solving them is an entirely different political endgame. And that is the flux Obama finds himself in. He is solving problems and seemingly that's not enough, and that's the message the Republican's want you to have.

Conclusion

For me, as espoused above, Barack Obama deserves another term at the office beyond doubt. People should understand that work is in progress and in the right direction, but its fruits will come to bear in time. Any change in the team at the White House now will be disastrous, and I am not saying this because I am a Democrat or else. People have to look beyond party lines and see the crux of the problem or problems America has been facing. One has to see it as a team fixing a problem, not a Democratic or Republican team fixing a problem. America has had enough, it is dealing with its problems finally now, let it finish. I would let it. What about you?

Supporting Obama for second term as President. Visit http://www.supportingobama.com/ for more details. Obama selected popular Merchandise and articles available. Mark Presta

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