Is the Utility of Scottish Independence Pragmatic?

There is beginning to be a debate about the pragmatism or the utility of Scottish independence. I strongly suspect that the argument is being made by those who would support independence come what may. They realise however, that the number of "existentialist" nationalists in Scotland is quite small, limited to the more committed members of the Scottish National Party and they have to try to reach out to the waverers and uncommitted in order to win the independence referendum. There's nothing wrong with this, of course. Unionists, too must try to reach out not only to our core support, who would support the Union come what may, but also to those who might be contemplating independence or who have once or twice even voted for the SNP.

One problem with the nationalist appeal to utilitarianism is that it rather forgets one of the central tenets of the philosophy which was developed by people such as John Stuart Mill and Jeremy Bentham. The essence of their idea about morality can be summed up by the quotation from Bentham's A Fragment of Government: "It is the greatest happiness of the greatest number that is the measure of right and wrong." Let's look at how this principle might apply to the issue of Scottish independence. Imagine that as a consequence of independence, the sum of happiness decreased in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. On the basis of utilitarian principles, Scottish independence would have to be rejected even if it led to an increase in happiness in Scotland. The reason is that anything which leads to an overall decrease in happiness is wrong by the principles of utilitarianism. Thus, for instance, if Scotland's failing to share its oil revenues led to a decline in living standards in the rest of the UK, this would be considered by utilitarians to be wrong, because the sum of overall happiness would have decreased, even if it meant that the happiness of those in Scotland was greater than it otherwise would be. The principle of utilitarianism, after all, is not that it should lead to the greatest happiness of the greatest number in Scotland. If the SNP were to maintain that they were only interested in happiness in Scotland, this would show that their philosophy has precious little to do with utilitarianism, which opposes selfishness. It would show, moreover, that the principle underlying the SNP's philosophy is not utility but existential nationalism. Why separate this group of people called Scots from the rest of the population unless it is for reasons of existential nationalism? Utility for us at the expense of you is neither utilitarian nor moral.

Scottish Nationalism fails the test of utilitarianism at the first hurdle. Let's look instead however, at whether it can be argued that it is pragmatic for the people of Scotland to choose independence. The trouble with the idea of appealing to pragmatism is that it depends on the ability to foresee the future. It is likely that if Scotland voted for independence that the result would stand. There would be no turning back. The southern part of Ireland chose to leave the UK in the 1920s, but no matter the nature of living standards there today, there is no bringing back the Union that existed from 1800 until partition. Imagine however, Irish nationalists appealing to pragmatism in the years leading up to independence. How far could they see ahead? It is doubtful that they could have predicted events even in the 1920s. They certainly could not have seen as far ahead as the Second World War, the creation of the European Union, or the crisis in the Eurozone. Yet all of these events have had consequences for the prosperity of southern Ireland. It is perfectly possible to argue, given the economic consequences of being in the Eurozone that it would have been more pragmatic for Irish nationalists not to have chosen independence all those years ago. It is arguable that the Irish people as a whole would be better off today with a united Ireland within the UK. But how could anyone have predicted these matters in the 1920s? Who knows what will happen to Scotland in the coming century. No one can look ahead more than a few years at best. So on what basis can nationalists appeal to pragmatism? Perhaps, they think that under every possible future circumstance it would be better for Scotland to be independent. But this is to argue that would be better for Scotland come what may to be independent. Once more the pragmatic argument reduces itself to the existential argument.

A further argument in terms of pragmatism is that Scotland would be more likely to get a government reflecting the will of its people if it voted for independence. Thus, independence is presented to left-wing Scots as a pragmatic way of avoiding future Tory governments. This argument depends on existential assumptions about Scotland's national status, for otherwise why choose Scotland as the base unit? Southern Scotland together with northern England might, for instance, be a more optimum political unit than either Scotland or the whole of the UK. Why then should we not set up such an independent state for pragmatic reasons? Alternatively, if Scotland were independent, there might be a region, for instance Aberdeenshire, which consistently voted differently from the rest of Scotland, should that region then not be allowed to secede from Scotland? The argument against these positions would be that neither Aberdeenshire, nor northern England joined with southern Scotland are countries, or nations. Once more we fall back on our existential nationalism.

The fundamental problem with the pragmatic argument for independence is that it is based on the idea that it is government that solves our problems and is the source of our money. This naturally leads to the idea that if only there were more government and a larger state all would be well. Nicola Sturgeon believes that the Labour party under Tony Blair was "not an alternative to Conservatism. It was business as usual." This means that her pragmatism amounts to being still more left-wing than Blair and Brown, increasing public spending and debt even more than they did. Far from being pragmatic, this would be economically disastrous. The public sector in Scotland is already too large. Government spending as a percentage of GDP is already much higher than is economically desirable for the promotion of growth. Yet the lesson the SNP would take from the Brown/Blair years is that Labour were Tories in disguise, not left-wing enough and that they did not spend enough public money, nor rack up enough debt. Are we seriously supposed to describe this as pragmatism?

Scotland is clearly an economically viable independent state, but the effect of independence financially would be about neutral. Scotland would gain from increased oil revenues, but we would lose our share of central government funding (the Barnett formula). Scotland would face the same hard choices with regard to debt and deficit as we do being part of the UK. The idea that Scotland could avoid austerity by voting for independence is simply not true. Anyone who believes this already shows themselves unfit to rule. The only result of SNP politicians continuing to favour ever increasing public spending in order to pay for still more free goodies to dish out universally as a bribe to the electorate, is that eventually we will be faced with a choice between bankruptcy and far more austerity than we have at present. Declining oil revenues, with fluctuating prices are not going to allow us to live beyond our means. Until the SNP shows that they understand the debt crisis, they are unsuitable to be put in charge of Scotland's economy whether independent or not.

Prosperity does not depend on being independent. If it did, then it would be pragmatic for the citizens of Baden-Württemberg to seek independence. But it is clearly in their interest to remain part of Germany. Independence for Baden-Württemberg would not make the people living there more prosperous. Germany like the UK is made up of places that once were independent, but which realised long ago that it is much more pragmatic to work together. Britain like Germany has a functioning single market and enormous economies of scale. These exist because both Britons and Germans have lived together in one country for centuries. To propose giving up these advantages is the very opposite of pragmatism.

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The Scottish independence referendum will be in 2014. I'm campaigning for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom, by means of a regular blog exploring all of the issues involved. Please come and join the debate by clicking on the above link.

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A Sense of Scottish Identity Does Not Require Independence

There are many reasons why people support Scottish independence. Some think that it would be economically advantageous, others think it would be politically advantageous and would make the sort of society they long for more likely to occur. But I get the impression that most nationalists see all these things as fringe benefits, even as ways and means to try to persuade other Scots to vote for independence. If I could convince a nationalist that Scotland would be just about the same economically as an independent state as it is now, or if I could show that politically things would be much the same, would I thereby convince him that he should vote against independence? I doubt it. A nationalist sees independence as a good in itself. Why is this? The answer, I think, lies in how such a person sees himself. Most typically Scottish nationalists, define themselves as exclusively Scottish. This sense of Scottishness, which they feel, they consider to be constrained by Scotland not being an independent state. Nationalists tend to see Scottish patriotism and Scottish nationalism as one and the same thing. Thus, at times they might even resort to questioning the patriotism of those who oppose independence. They might even consider that such opponents are betraying Scotland, that they are somehow traitors.

Some time ago I had an interesting experience while on holiday, which gave me a new insight into identity and issues of nationalism and made me compare and contrast my experience here with my experience there. I spent two weeks in the Bavarian Alps in a small town called Berchtesgaden. It's a wonderful spot, perhaps known chiefly for the fact that it was the site of Hitler's Eagle's Nest and thus a monument to the darkest side of nationalism. But perhaps because of this historical situation, it was possible here to see people expressing their identity in a way that I found quite touching.

One day I came across a village celebrating its anniversary. Four or five hundred years ago, that village been founded. Nearly every man was dressed in traditional Bavarian lederhosen. Each had a hat with a feather. Nearly every woman wore a dirndl, the traditional dress for that region. These people were clearly comfortable with their Bavarian identity. They spoke the Bavarian dialect, indeed even I learned a few Bavarian phrases. Were these people patriots? Were they nationalists? There were Bavarian flags everywhere, blue and white. But there were lots of German flags, too. No one had a problem speaking High German rather than dialect, no one had a problem with the idea that being a Bavarian meant that they could also be a German. The lesson about nationalism had been learned and perhaps less than one percent of these Bavarians wanted independence from Germany.

What I learned on my trip also was that nationalism did not have much point in this region. The nearest major city was Salzburg in Austria, but on the short trip there, it was scarcely possible even to notice a border. I didn't even see a sign. The whole trip from Germany to Austria was as near to being a trip within one country as makes no difference. Everything was completely integrated. The same money, the same tickets, the same everything. Only an accident of history meant that Bavaria and Austria were separate countries, but it didn't seem to bother anyone living there. They scarcely seemed to notice. Really, by all normal standards they might as well have been in the same country. They have no reason to unite, because they are already united. But by the same token Bavaria has no reason to divide itself from the rest of Germany. These people seem to have moved on from these questions. I imagine they would find our debate in Scotland all rather baffling. Bavarians can express their separate identity, without denying that they are a part of whole. They fought a war with the most of the rest of Germany as recently as 1866, yet no one goes on about sending the Germans homeward to think again.

In Britain we have just the same experience as I found traveling between Germany and Austria, a land without borders. The Germans have learned their lesson about nationalism and they want nothing to do with borders. When countries are as integrated as Germany and Austria, questions about unification or separation become meaningless. This is the direction which Europe is moving towards. At times it must be said that the journey Europe is making is a struggle. National difference and especially the lack of a common language is hindering them on the path to European integration. But it's possible to admire the attempt, even while retaining concerns about the fundamental nature of the European Union. The goal of creating a free, democratic Europe without nationalism, may turn out to be impossible, but it is a fine ideal nonetheless.

We in the UK already have what Europe so desperately wants. We have unity, we can travel from one part of the UK to another and barely notice the difference. We can work and live where we please and only an accent distinguishes those who live here. But we have not yet learned that we can express our identity without demanding separation. We have not yet learned the lesson about nationalism, that was given to the Germans and the Austrians. For this reason we squabble over matters of no consequence, ungrateful, willing perhaps to squander the unity of centuries for a mess of nationalism.

http://effiedeans.blogspot.co.uk/

The Scottish independence referendum will be in 2014. I'm campaigning for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom, by means of a regular blog exploring all of the issues involved.
Please come and join the debate by clicking on the above link.

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The Eurozone Crisis and Scottish Independence

What are the consequences for the debate about Scottish independence of a Greek exit from the eurozone? No one knows what will happen if Greece leaves. Some economists are predicting something approaching Armageddon, others are more moderate, but it is likely that the whole European economy including Britain's is heading into very difficult times. At times when I read the business sections of the papers, I begin to wonder what on earth we are doing in Scotland debating arcane constitutional matters. I'm as interested in the debate about independence as the next Scot and I'm passionate about Scotland remaining in the UK. But really it's as if Rhode Island decided to clamour for independence a week after the Wall Street crash.

Given that we are heading into still more turbulent waters, is this the time to jump ship and try to set sail on our own? Even if independence were a good idea in principle, which it is not, it would be a bad idea at present, because times are just too uncertain. What are the possible scenarios facing the Eurozone and what consequences do they have for Scotland? Fundamentally there are two choices for the Eurozone. Either it breaks up into sovereign currencies or it becomes something akin to a full blown fiscal union with transfers from the rich regions to the poor regions. This second option would be akin to a United States of Europe.

What have we learned from the whole crisis that has been unfolding for the past two years? Just this, that monetary union requires fiscal union. Fiscal union is what the UK has and what the Eurozone lacks. Now, Mr Salmond wants Scotland to become independent, but to retain the pound. What he wants therefore is the situation which exists at present in the Eurozone. He wants monetary union with the rest of the UK, but not fiscal union. But this is just this position which has lead to the chaos in the Eurozone. The tensions which exist in the Eurozone could equally arise in this new Sterling zone, which would no longer be a fiscal union. The outcome would be the same. Either Scotland would need to recreate the fiscal union with the rest of the UK, which would in effect mean a return to being a part of the UK, or it would have to leave the Sterling zone in order to set up its own currency, call them New Scottish Pounds. These new Scottish pounds would fall relative to Sterling, just as the New Greek Drachma will fall relative to the Euro if Greece is forced out. What I would like to ask my fellow Scots is this. Do you want your savings, your house, and your other property to be redenominated into a devalued currency? If you don't want this, even as a possibility, you must vote against independence.

Let's imagine another alternative. The Eurozone may choose to become a fiscal union and this may work. Personally I doubt that they have what is necessary for a successful fiscal union, such as a common language, a common culture, sufficiently similar economies etc. But be that as it may, with enough will and determination the Eurozone may continue as a fiscal union. Scotland could choose to join. But then really once more this so called independence becomes nothing of the sort. Scotland would be a state in the United States of Europe and would be no more independent than Rhode Island.

The logic of economics suggests that the only way Scotland could be truly independent is to set up its own currency, with its own central bank. This is the model which nearly all recently independent countries such as Latvia, Ukraine and Lithuania, have followed. But doing so, of course, would entail the risk of devaluation to our currency, and would mean that in the event of another crisis Scotland would be the lender of last resort. But if that had been the case in 2008, Scotland would have been bankrupted by RBS and HBOS and would have had to resort to the IMF. Anyone who thinks that there is no risk of further crises in the coming years understands nothing of economics.

Just a final thought. In the storms that are going to batter us in the months and years ahead. Where would you rather be? In HMS Great Britain or in the good ship Braveheart setting off on her maiden voyage with Captain Salmond at the helm.

http://effiedeans.blogspot.co.uk/

The Scottish independence referendum will be in 2014. I'm campaigning for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom, by means of a regular blog exploring all of the issues involved. Please come and join the debate by clicking on the above link.

View the original article here